The war plan

I am under the imprecision that the coalition does not really want to fight this war. That is why they launched their surprise attack on Wednesday, to get Saddam and hopefully unbalance his regime. That is why there has been no attempt to capture Basra. That is why so much focus is placed on surrendering Iraqis, high-level communications with elements in the "regime", or on the few Iraqis that have come into contact with coalition troops and seemed to welcome them.

There is no doubt that the coalition will probably prevail. But, the real question is How? There is no sign of a popular uprising, or of large Iraqi units surrendering until now. In the urban environment where the war will likely be decided, the coalition will have little use for its superior artillery, air power, or mechanized capabilities. Capturing Baghdad will have to be done by soldiers on the ground, fighting in territory that is familiar to the opposing side. That will result in heavy casualties: precisely what the war organizers don't want - for political reasons.

The scenario that seems more likely at this point is that we will be seeing the Siege of Baghdad very soon, and it will not be a short one. The coalition will try to buy time hoping for a collapse and surrender. The "regime" already seems to be gathering its forces in Baghdad, and there is no sign that it is unravelling either from within or without. The notion that a popular uprising, or large-case surrenders will spare the coalition the human cost of actual conquest does not seem to be probable at all.

And that opens a new question: what will be the future of the Anglo-American involvement in Iraq if the liberation/occupation is not met with the jubilation that the war planners have apparently hoped for?